China's trade surplus exceeded expectations in January, general trade import and export increased by 13%In the first month of the new year, China’s foreign trade continued its steady upward trend last year and continued to maintain rapid growth. Among them, exports have achieved a good start with a double-digit growth rate.
According to data released by the General Administration of Customs on February 14, the total value of China's import and export of goods in January was 2.73 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.7% over the same period last year. Among them, exports were 1.5 trillion yuan, up 13.9%; imports were 1.23 trillion yuan, up 2.9%; trade surplus was 271.16 billion yuan, an increase of 1.2 times.
In the context of the global economic and trade situation is not optimistic, China's foreign trade import and export volume, exports and imports in 2018 have set a new record. Experts said that it is necessary to see the complicated and grim situation facing China's foreign trade, and to see that the favorable factors for the high-quality development of foreign trade still exist. On the basis of increasing the stability of foreign trade, we must accelerate the cultivation of new advantages in foreign trade competition.
Trade surplus exceeded expectations
In January, China's overall trade in goods increased by 8.7%, exceeding market expectations. At the same time, Sino-US trade fell by 10.1%, and the two sets of data “one litre and one fell” formed a sharp contrast.

In this regard, Yang Changyong, an associate researcher at the Institute of Foreign Economics of the China Academy of Macroeconomic Research, said that on the one hand, the impact of Sino-US trade frictions continues to emerge, and on the other hand, it shows that China's foreign trade growth has strong resilience and endogenous motivation.
"Specifically, in January, China's import and export of major trading partners such as the EU, ASEAN and the 'Belt and Road' countries showed rapid growth, which partly hedged the impact of Sino-US trade decline, indicating that China's export market is diversified. The construction has achieved remarkable results," said Yang Changyong.
According to statistics, the total trade volume between China and the EU in January was 444.84 billion yuan, an increase of 17.6%, accounting for 16.3% of China's total foreign trade. The total trade volume between China and ASEAN was 356.6 billion yuan, an increase of 7.8%, of which exports to ASEAN increased by 17.6%. In the same period, China’s total import and export of the “Belt and Road” countries reached 770.8 billion yuan, an increase of 11.5%, higher than the national total. The speed is 2.8 percentage points, and the proportion of foreign trade is close to 30%.
Also out of market expectations is the trade surplus in January. According to statistics, China’s trade surplus in January was 271.16 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.2 times.

“This is mainly determined by the characteristics of overseas market demand at the beginning of the year.” Yang Changyong explained that from the perspective of seasonality, foreign trade data in January and February each year is greatly affected by the Spring Festival effect, and manufacturers usually rush. Centralized shipments before the Spring Festival directly led to an expansion of the trade surplus.
Experts said that the expansion of the trade surplus in a single month does not need to be over-interpreted. The next step is to continue to implement the measures to expand the import strategy and put the relevant achievements of the first China Expo to be put in place as soon as possible to promote balanced trade development.
In addition, in dollar terms, China’s total import and export value increased by only 4% in January, and the foreign exchange growth rate in terms of RMB was 8.7%, which was more than doubled. Yang Changyong said that this was mainly because the RMB exchange rate showed a relatively obvious depreciation last year, which had a certain impact on foreign trade statistics. If the RMB exchange rate remains basically stable at a reasonable level this year, the trade gap between the two currencies will be significantly reduced.

Private enterprises have strong vitality
While import and export of foreign trade continues to maintain total growth, it is also a highlight of the optimization of foreign trade structure.
The trade pattern has become more reasonable, and the general trade has grown rapidly and its proportion has increased. In January, China's general trade import and export was 1.66 trillion yuan, an increase of 13%, accounting for 60.9% of China's total foreign trade, an increase of 2.3 percentage points over the same period last year. In the same period, the import and export of processing trade was 680.7 billion yuan, down 0.9%, and the proportion continued to decline by 2.4 percentage points.
"It is worth mentioning that in January, China's total import and export value by bonded logistics was 279.73 billion yuan, an increase of 9.3%, accounting for 10.2% of China's total foreign trade. This shows that the new foreign trade and business represented by cross-border e-commerce The model will continue to grow at a faster rate,” said Li Kuiwen, spokesperson for the General Administration of Customs and Director of the Department of Statistical Analysis.
The merchandise structure was significantly optimized, and the export of electromechanical products and labor-intensive products all showed growth. In January, the export value of mechanical and electrical products with higher added value was 857.51 billion yuan, an increase of 11.5%, accounting for 57.1% of the total export value. Among them, electrical and electronic products and machinery and equipment increased by 8.7% and 13.6% respectively. In the same period, the seven major labor-intensive products such as clothing, textiles, furniture and footwear with traditional advantages have grown by a large margin, with a growth rate of 17.4%. In addition, steel exports were 6.19 million tons, an increase of 33.3%; automobiles were 90,000, an increase of 16.3%.

Private enterprises have shown strong trade vitality, import and export achieved double-digit growth and trade share continued to increase. In January, private enterprises imported and exported 1.15 trillion yuan, an increase of 17%, accounting for 42.3% of China's total foreign trade, an increase of 3 percentage points over the same period last year. Among them, the export of private enterprises increased by 21.9%, and the total value of exports exceeded “half of the country” and continued to maintain the status of the largest export entity.
"In addition to the increase in quantity and the improvement of vitality, the regional layout and commodity structure of private enterprises in foreign trade development are also more optimized." Li Kuiwen said that at present, China's private enterprises have achieved echelon development in regional distribution, central and western The growth rate of foreign trade in private enterprises in Northeast China has been higher than that in the eastern region. The high-tech products such as electromechanical products account for over 40% of the import and export of private enterprises.
Cautiously optimistic foreign trade
Overall, the foreign trade situation in January was generally good, but excluding seasonal factors, there was still some downward pressure on export data in February. Experts believe that before a series of policies such as expanding domestic demand and stabilizing growth have not yet fully played their role, foreign trade import and export will continue to be under pressure, and should be cautiously optimistic about the annual foreign trade growth.
"For example, the sharp decline in trade with the United States in January should be given enough attention, and it is necessary to calmly observe and rationally judge." Yang Changyong said.Yang Changyong said that the monthly data is not enough to make an accurate judgment on the foreign trade in the whole year. However, we should pay more attention to the medium and long-term trend of foreign trade. We must not only see the favorable factors in the development of foreign trade, but also estimate the difficulties more fully. We must take strong measures to stabilize the growth of foreign trade and focus on promoting the high-quality development of foreign trade.However, after years of development and accumulation, China's foreign trade has developed a solid foundation for its stable development, and foreign trade transformation and upgrading have also achieved phased results. At the press conference on business work and operation in 2018 held recently, the Director of the Comprehensive Department of the Ministry of Commerce, Chu Shijia, said that China's foreign trade development still has many favorable factors. The world economy continues the external environment of slow recovery, and China actively expands its opening strategy. The effects of the stabilization of foreign trade policies, the acceleration of industrial upgrading, and the enhancement of corporate vitality have all provided strong support for China's foreign trade development."In the short term, we will do our utmost to promote the agreement between China and the United States, avoid further escalation of friction, and create a favorable environment for foreign trade. In the long run, we must work harder to promote trade growth and actively explore the 'One Belt, One Road' trade market. And use it as a focus point for the decline of hedging trade," said Yang Changyong.